International Business Machines Corporation IBM has jumped 15.4% over the past three months, underperforming the industry’s growth of 127.3%, largely due to macroeconomic challenges and a sudden development in the artificial intelligence (AI) domain that threatens its core legacy businesses. The stock has, however, outperformed peers like Microsoft Corporation MSFT and Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN. While Microsoft gained 2.9%, Amazon has rallied 15.2% over this period.
Three-Month IBM Stock Price Performance
What Plagues IBM?
IBM's recent weakness largely stemmed from AI startup Anthropic's announcement that its Claude Code tool is capable of modernizing legacy COBOL applications — a programming language that underpins a significant portion of IBM's mainframe ecosystem. The tool promises to automate labor-intensive tasks such as code analysis, documentation, refactoring and security assessment, potentially reducing enterprises' reliance on legacy modernization specialists like IBM.
IBM has long been the dominant player in the mainframe market, generating recurring revenues not only from its hardware business but also from consulting and modernization services for mission-critical COBOL-based applications. The complexity of these legacy environments has historically created a strong competitive moat, as enterprises have been reluctant to replace or rewrite COBOL systems due to the high costs, operational risks and limited availability of skilled developers.
However, AI-powered code modernization tools could begin to narrow this advantage. COBOL continues to power critical workloads across financial institutions, airlines, retailers and government agencies worldwide. If Claude Code significantly lowers the cost, time and complexity associated with understanding, refactoring and migrating legacy applications, enterprises may increasingly pursue modernization initiatives with fewer specialized consulting resources.
Such a shift could weigh on IBM's Consulting business by reducing demand for labor-intensive legacy modernization projects and putting pressure on pricing in an area that has historically generated attractive margins. While the long-term impact remains uncertain, Anthropic's announcement has introduced a potential competitive overhang for one of IBM's established revenue streams, prompting investors to reassess the company's AI-era growth prospects.
Competitive Pressures Add to IBM Woes
IBM is facing competition from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Increasing pricing pressure is eroding margins, and profitability has trended down over the years, barring occasional spikes. Weaknesses in its traditional business and foreign exchange volatility remain significant concerns.
IBM’s frequent acquisitions have also escalated integration risks. Buyouts have negatively impacted the company’s balance sheet, resulting in high levels of goodwill and net intangible assets. Moreover, a highly leveraged balance sheet has been troubling IBM over time.
The Tailwinds
Despite the setbacks, IBM is poised to benefit from healthy demand trends for hybrid cloud and AI, which drive the Software and Consulting segments. The company’s growth is expected to be aided by analytics, cloud computing and security in the long run. A combination of a better business mix, improving operating leverage through productivity gains and increased investment in growth opportunities will likely boost profitability.
With a surge in traditional cloud-native workloads and associated applications, along with a rise in generative AI deployment, there is a radical expansion in the number of cloud workloads that enterprises are currently managing. This has resulted in heterogeneous, dynamic and complex infrastructure strategies, which have led firms to undertake a cloud-agnostic and interoperable approach to highly secure multi-cloud management, translating into a healthy demand for IBM hybrid cloud solutions.
The buyout of HashiCorp has significantly augmented IBM’s capabilities to assist enterprises in managing complex cloud environments. HashiCorp’s tool sets complement IBM RedHat’s portfolio, bringing additional functionalities for cloud infrastructure management and bolstering its hybrid multi-cloud approach. IBM’s watsonx platform is likely to be the core technology platform for its AI capabilities. watsonx delivers the value of foundational models to the enterprise, enabling them to be more productive.
Estimate Revision Trend
IBM is currently witnessing an uptrend in estimate revisions. Earnings estimates for IBM for 2026 have moved up 4.6% to $12.40 over the past year, while the same for 2027 has increased 7.4% to $13.43. The positive estimate revision portrays bullish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
End Note
IBM has invested heavily in its own AI capabilities, including watsonx, and could incorporate generative AI into its consulting workflows to improve efficiency rather than lose relevance. A strong emphasis on quantum computing and hybrid cloud is driving value for customers. With improving earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing a positive investor perception.
However, IBM’s growth is dented by high operating costs and stiff competition that reduce its profitability. The company faces a potent threat from Anthropic and needs to fine-tune its business model to remain competitive. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), IBM appears to be treading a middle-of-the-road path, and new investors may be better off trading with caution. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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