By Jacob Sonenshine

Somehow, some way, Nike's World Cup-related business is crushing Adidas, even as Nike overall struggles. Nike's stock has lost over three-quarters of its value since notching a record high in late 2021. Nike's brand has declined in consumers' eyes, and competition has emerged from brands like On Holding and Deckers Outdoor's Hoka sneakers.

Meanwhile, Adidas stock is up 36% since a late March low, while Nike shares are down 20% in that same span. Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Adidas to grow sales year-over-year almost 5% to $30.3 billion, while they see Nike sales growing a mere 0.2% to $46.4 billion.

And yet, Nike is defending its turf in soccer gear. Nike's sell-out rate for U.S. World Cup products in a two-week period earlier this month was 28%, trouncing Adidas' 7%, according to a June 22 LSEG report. Nike has put out more World Cup products than Adidas at higher prices, and it hasn't had to aggressively discount to achieve strong sell-through. As the report says, "Nike's merchandise assortment is generating stronger immediate consumer demand."

And yet, investors should remember World Cup sales are a small part of Nike's business. Nike's total revenue for North America is expected to come out to $5.1 billion for its first quarter ended in August, according to FactSet, which includes tournament revenue. World Cup revenue is likely a much smaller figure. One thing for sure: Nike appears to be America's favored soccer brand — even if it doesn't move the needle for shareholders.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com

Last Week

Markets

The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt reciprocal strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, but new talks remained uncertain. Stocks rose across the board, led by the Nasdaq Composite. The Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump to fire heads of independent agencies. The exception: the Federal Reserve. (Fed governor Lisa Cook can stay for now.) New jobs disappointed at 57,000. Stocks finished the quarter with their best performance in six years, then tech fell on Thursday. On the short July Fourth week, the Dow industrials hit a high, up 2%, the S&P 500 1.8%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%.

Companies

The Bank for International Settlements warned that the artificial-intelligence investment boom could end as a bust. South Korea is planning an $880 billion investment in chips and data centers. The U.S. released export controls on Anthropic. Meta Platforms proposed selling excess cloud capacity. The European Union fined Google $4.7 billion on antitrust grounds. The U.S. backed off a renewal of the North American trade pact for year-by-year talks. Trump earned $1.4 billion on crypto in 2025.

Deals

Verizon Communications and BT Group will combine international units in a joint venture... Comcast said it planned to split into two public companies, separating wireless and broadband from media and entertainment... Rocket Lab will buy satellite operator Iridium Communications for $8 billion...Alcoa is paying up to $5.6 billion for the bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets of South32.

Next Week

Monday 7/6

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers' Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 54.2 reading, slightly less than the May figure.

Wednesday 7/8

The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-June monetary policy meeting. At that meeting, the FOMC kept the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.

It was the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. He reiterated the Federal Reserve's target of 2% inflation, which Wall Street perceived as hawkish. Traders are pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by the end of October, earlier than previously expected.

Thursday 7/9

PepsiCo reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 results.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for June. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 million homes sold, slightly more than in May.

Friday 7/10

Delta Air Lines announces quarterly results. Shares of the carrier hit a record high this past week.

The Numbers

$1 T

An estimate of total AI investment from the five biggest hyperscalers from 2025 to the end of 2026.

1500%

The growth in China's hydropower output since 1995, now some 40% of the world's capacity.

$2.3 T

Stock market value lost by the Magnificent Seven tech companies in June as chip stocks hit new highs.

689

The number of U.S. deaths per 100,000 in 2025, down 22% since the pandemic, and a record low.

Write to Robert Teitelman at robrt.teitelman@barrons.com

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