Oracle stock is surprisingly cheap – at least that’s the word in the retail community on Stocktwits. As the once high-flying cloud stock has tumbled over the past month on concerns over its debt load and business fundamentals, calls to buy the dip have grown louder.
Oracle presents a compelling mix of opportunity and risk in the AI market. The stock is down 50% from its 2026 high on June 1 and 62% from its peak last September, making its valuation increasingly attractive. However, the pace at which the company has been piling on debt to fund new AI capacity – much of it tied to recently won business from OpenAI, whose competitive positioning and delayed IPO have come under scrutiny – has sharply increased Oracle’s risk profile.
In that sense, Oracle’s future depends not only on its ability to execute – such as bringing additional cloud capacity online in a timely manner – but also on factors beyond its control. And not to forget, an ever-changing investor sentiment toward AI spending and returns, as well as the looming second-quarter tech earnings season, could have an outsized influence on the stock’s performance.
Still, after the recent slump, analyst and trader views appear to have shifted in favor of Oracle.
ORCL Stock: Why Analysts Still See Upside
Earlier this month, William Blair added Oracle to its July conviction list, a list of stocks the research firm believes have the strongest potential to outperform over the next six months. The research firm said Oracle’s $638 billion RPO and growing customer diversification supported a compelling long-term growth story despite investor worries over AI infrastructure spending.
Meanwhile, RBC (Sector Perform), Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight), BMO (Outperform), Piper Sandler (Overweight), Stephens (Equal Weight), Citigroup (Market Outperform), Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight/Mixed), Scotiabank (Sector Outperform) have largely maintained their ratings, per their most recent disclosures.
Currently, 37 out of 43 analysts rate the stock ‘Buy’ or higher, five rate it ‘Hold,’ and only one rates it ‘Sell,’ according to Koyfin. Their average price target of $251.85 is more than double ORCL’s closing price on Thursday.
However, investors also took note when S&P Global Ratings announced last week that it was downgrading the credit rating of the software and AI cloud computing giant from BBB to BBB-, one notch above speculative-grade, or junk-bond, ratings.
Oracle’s “growing AI infrastructure business is diluting its strong business risk profile,” S&P analysts wrote. They added that they had previously “underestimated the scale of the investments required to expand the AI business and its impact on our overall view of Oracle’s creditworthiness.”
ORCL’s Debt Woes
Last month, Oracle reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and said its backlog surged 363% to a record $638 billion. But it also forecasts up to $95 billion in capital expenditure for fiscal 2027, following $55.7 billion in spending last fiscal.
To achieve that, Oracle said it would raise $40 billion in debt and equity this fiscal year. In the fiscal year just ended, Oracle raised $43 billion in debt financing and $5 billion in equity.
While raising debt to fund expansion isn’t inherently a negative, Oracle’s reliance on OpenAI and the AI startup’s weakening position have raised concerns around the ORCL investment case.
Anthropic is now valued above OpenAI and is also reported to have a higher annualized revenue run rate. With reports that OpenAI has pushed its IPO to next year, coupled with Apple’s lawsuit alleging trade secret theft, concerns around the AI startup’s business have intensified in recent months.
Retail Eyes ORCL Opportunity
Even though analysts generally stay constructive, investors have become increasingly focused on leverage, capex and OpenAI concentration risk. Still, retail traders are eyeing an opportunity here.
The bull case is that Oracle enjoys deep relationships with customers and investors, has a strong execution track record, and there are few fundamental signs that its debt-fueled expansion is running into roadblocks, while demand for AI cloud infrastructure remains robust.
Over the past year, Oracle has reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees as part of a restructuring effort aimed at improving operational efficiency and integrating AI. As of May 31, 2026, the company had a total workforce of 141,000, compared to 162,000 as of the same period last year.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ORCL has risen since late last month, moving inversely with the stock’s decline. Over the last 30 days, message volume for the ticker has risen over 750%, and watcher count has increased 4.2%, suggesting fresh interest from retail traders.
“$ORCL just keep in mind these are the opportunities that people wish they have. Everyone always says they wish they bought at whatever price. This is your opportunity. It can be scary but Oracle isn't going anywhere. This is a solid buy,” a trader .
Another : “$ORCL This stock is on sale! Bought more. This is almost criminal how they beat this down under $130. We all know sooner or later this will skyrocket.”
Oracle will likely report its next earnings – for the company’s quarter ending in August – in September.