By Callum Keown
What is going on with Oracle stock?
The software sector is enjoying a rebound and Wall Street analysts have rarely ever been as bullish on Oracle as they are now. Yet the stock has fallen for nine consecutive days, dropping 24% over that period — its longest losing streak since December 2021.
But the bad run goes even further back. Since closing at a 2026 high of $248.15 on June 1, the stock has fallen on 18 out of 22 trading days. The word 'slump' is often overused but that's a proper slump. It's 57% down from its record closing high on Sept. 10, 2025.
What makes it even more concerning is that Oracle's latest losing streak has coincided with a software rebound. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector exchange-traded fund is on a five-day winning streak through Thursday, up more than 10% over that period.
Wall Street analysts believe in the stock, 84% of those covering the shares rate them as Buy, according to FactSet data. Only once in the past 20 years, briefly in May 2011, has the stock had a higher percentage Buy rating.
The average price target of $254.84 implies an 82% upside to Thursday's closing price.
Mizuho's Siti Panigrahi is one of the most bullish, with a price target of $320. In fact, Oracle is one of Mizuho's top picks. "Oracle's end to end AI stack across database, infrastructure, and applications positions it as a key long-term beneficiary of AI adoption," Panigraghi said in a note Thursday.
However, he added that Oracle will likely need outside financing to fund its capex spending. He also listed "financing challenges" as a key risk.
The company's spending and its debt pile are likely to be the major areas of concern for investors, and a big reason for its underperformance.
But KeyBanc analysts hiked their estimates on the company last month as they have become "increasingly comfortable" that operating expense growth will remain muted. "This is where future upside will come from," they added, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.
Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com
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