Occidental Petroleum NYSE:OXY rose 3.43% in premarket after Evercore upgraded the company to Outperform from Underperform, and raised its price target to $65 from $58. The firm cited a de-levered balance sheet and improved capital efficiency as reasons the stock can now better track commodity fundamentals. More importantly, WTI futures jumped 5.93% after Donald Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over, reviving supply-disruption fears, helping the oil producers. OXY had fallen 12% over the prior month, compressing valuation and creating a high-beta setup for a sharp recovery.
Evercore projects approximately 8% free cash flow per share compound annual growth rate through 2030, assuming flat $75 WTI and flat volumes, a lower rate than the roughly 20% the firm sees at Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG Resources (EOG), and Diamondback Energy (FANG), but reflecting OXY's higher leverage to oil prices. The firm expects OXY to restart buybacks in the back half of 2028. Wells Fargo reaffirmed its Buy rating as recently as July 2, keeping institutional sentiment constructive.