The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, a Reuters poll showed, with June inflation at target, but likely to rise in the coming months according to analysts.
All 29 respondents in a Reuters poll forecast the NBP would keep its main rate (PLINTR=ECI) at 3.75% in July.
Annual inflation slowed in June to 2.5% from 3.1% a month earlier, an estimate from the statistics office showed last week, beating analysts' expectations of a 2.7% rise.
Consumer price growth has stayed within the central bank's target range of 2.5% plus or minus one percentage point for a full year.
The NBP will release its updated inflation forecasts alongside its interest rate decision and analysts expect it will show a higher path than the bank's March predictions, which did not account for the impact of the war in the Middle East.
The government's fuel price cutting measures, which had cost the budget an estimated 4.7 billion zlotys ($1.25 billion), expired at the end of June.
"We maintain our forecast that the MPC will leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026. The NBP’s July projection is likely to show a CPI inflation path materially higher than in March through to mid-2027," Bank PKO BP analysts said.
"The expected rise in inflation above the upper bound for deviations from the NBP target, at 3.5% y/y, towards the end of this year does not mean that rates need to be raised, in our view, however, it will effectively prevent the MPC from considering cuts in 2026," they added.
The NBP has kept interest rates steady since March, when it cut the base rate by 25 basis points. In early June, following the policy decision, Governor Adam Glapinski said the cost of credit was at an appropriate level, and slowing inflation reduced the likelihood of monetary tightening.
($1 = 3.7465 zlotys)