Analysts are maintaining bullish expectations for Kioxia Holdings Inc. (KXIAY), a Japanese memory-chip maker, even after the stock fell to less than half its record high from roughly one month earlier. Kioxia shares dropped to 52,110, or about $320, on Friday as global AI and semiconductor stocks faced renewed pressure. The average analyst price target now stands at 121,959, representing potential upside of about 130% from the current share price and the widest target-price gap among the 100 largest Topix companies by market capitalization.
The correction has been linked to concerns about the durability of AI spending, the possibility of weaker memory prices as competitors increase production, and technical selling connected to leveraged single-stock exchange-traded funds in South Korea. Kazuyoshi Saito, a senior analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities Co., said Kioxia's earnings and growth outlook remains supported by robust AI demand and maintained a 132,000 price target. Nomura Securities Co., a securities firm, raised its Kioxia target to 126,000 from 115,000, with analyst Virginia Wang expecting NAND flash memory prices to continue rising because of supply shortages. China Renaissance Research, a research firm, also increased its target to more than 100,000, suggesting analysts continue to see upside despite the sharp decline.
However, the stock may need more time before regaining sustained upward momentum. Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities Co., said volatility and South Korean ETF flows could keep the shares under pressure until at least the end of August, while investors may diversify into other attractively valued stocks instead of concentrating their portfolios in Kioxia again. Yoshiharu Izumi, a senior analyst at Phillip Securities Japan Ltd., maintained a 143,000 target and attributed the recent weakness mainly to technical pressures, including selling by overseas ETFs and leveraged activity among Japanese retail investors. Investors may therefore view an easing of these technical distortions, alongside continued strong earnings and AI-related demand, as possible catalysts for a recovery.