Canada's economy might not be as resilient as aggregate data suggest, says Stefane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada. He cites monthly figures on firm creation and closings, and says the numbers for manufacturing demonstrate acute stress for trade-exposed Canadian companies. Marion says the number of active manufacturing firms fell in 1Q to its lowest level in at least a decade, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, firm counts across all other industries remain much closer to cycle highs. "Canada may still be generating growth elsewhere in the economy, but its trade-exposed production base is telling a more fragile story," Marion warns. (paul.vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)