Australia’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to around 4.8% on Friday, ending a two-session advance as investors assessed major banks’ hawkish interpretations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting minutes.
Although markets continued to price only a 15% chance of an August rate hike and roughly even odds that the tightening cycle has ended, CBA said the minutes struck a hawkish tone, citing repeated references to excess demand and capacity constraints as evidence that the RBA remains concerned about inflationary pressures.
Likewise, ANZ said the minutes reinforced the risk of a further rate increase while maintaining its core rate forecast. On the economic front, Australia’s S&P Global Composite PMI was revised up to 50.4 in June from a preliminary reading of 49.8, supported by a return to expansion in services activity (50.5 vs 48.7) and stronger manufacturing growth (51.5 vs 50.7).