By Mike Murphy

Fireworks can be seen over the East River during the Macy's Fourth of July show on Saturday night in New York City.

U.S. stock-index futures gained on Sunday, with Wall Street looking to extend last week's gains.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were up fractionally late Sunday night. S&P 500 futures (ES00) were up 0.2% while Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) were 0.6% higher. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading above the $63,000 level, up about 5% over the past week.

Oil prices bounced back from early-session losses, with West Texas Intermediate crude (CLQ26) (CL.1), the U.S. benchmark, down 0.2% after OPEC+ announced Sunday another modest increase in oil output for August. The group of major oil producers has announced hikes for five months in a row, though the moves are largely symbolic until the Strait of Hormuz can be fully reopened - dependent on a stable peace between the U.S. and Iran.

"OPEC is opening the spigot because its members need more revenue as much as the market needs more supply," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note Sunday night. "That may soften crude, but it does not erase the energy shock already moving through the economy."

The Dow DJIA closed Thursday at a new all-time high, its 20th record close of the year. The S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP dipped Thursday, but all three indexes ended the holiday-shortened week higher, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq gaining 2.1. U.S. markets were closed Friday for the Fourth of July holiday. The Dow has gained for four straight weeks, its longest winning streak since October 2024, while the S&P 500 has risen in 12 of the past 14 weeks and the Nasdaq has been up 11 of the past 14 weeks, according to Dow Jones Market Data,

But after a huge rally by momentum stocks - led by semiconductor companies, such as Micron (MU) - last quarter, analysts are warning that July could bring more volatility. The Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF has already lost 6.6% in July, and there are concerns that the market could see a "violent rotation" away from momentum stocks this month, Warren Pies, co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, told MarketWatch in an interview last week. That swing could potentially see investors taking profits from chip stocks and picking up the battered shares of hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META), along with non-tech stocks.

"The recent bounce in healthcare, industrials and financials is encouraging, but it is not yet enough to declare a healthy rotation," Innes said in his Sunday note. "A real rotation is when capital moves from one part of the market to another without disturbing the furniture. What we saw last week felt more like everyone leaving one crowded room at once and hoping the hallway was wide enough."

The upcoming week is light on economic-data reports, though investors will be keeping their eyes peeled for Wednesday's release of the Fed's minutes from their June meeting.

PepsiCo (PEP) will report quarterly results on Thursday and Delta Air Lines (DAL) will report Friday, with earnings season to kick off in earnest next week, with the big banks reporting July 14.

-Mike Murphy

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