Three weeks after the largest IPO in history, the story investors tell about SpaceX is still mostly about rockets and Starlink.
That’s understandable — but it misses where the company is actually headed. Two of the most consequential developments since the June 12th debut happened nowhere near a launchpad: the transformation of the xAI division from a cash furnace into a genuine revenue engine, and the public launch of X Money, Elon Musk’s long-promised financial “everything app.”
SpaceX stock soared to nearly over $225 per share in its first week of public trading before coming back down near IPO levels. With the company’s first earnings report as a public entity now weeks away, these threads deserve a closer look.
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Is the xAI Transformation Just Hype?
Start with xAI, which was the single biggest drag on SpaceX’s profitability last year. The AI unit posted a roughly $6.4 billion operating loss for 2025, and skeptics rightly flagged it as the riskiest piece of the SpaceX empire. But the picture has shifted quickly.
In May, Anthropic signed a contract worth $1.25 billion per month to purchase all the compute capacity at xAI’s Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, which houses roughly 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Then in June, Google agreed to pay $920 million monthly for cloud compute from Colossus to help power its Gemini models, at a reduced rate through September and the full rate until 2029.
The significance is hard to overstate: between the Anthropic and Google deals, the entire company’s revenue run-rate is set to more than double. A division that was pure burn is suddenly selling its excess compute to two of the most sophisticated buyers in AI — a striking validation of the infrastructure Musk assembled.
That said, xAI remains an enormous consumer of capital. AI accounted for roughly 76% of the group’s total capital expenditures in the first quarter, with xAI still burning billions annually. First-quarter AI capex ran about $7.7 billion, implying something in the $30 billion range for the full year.
The long-term vision ties xAI back to the core space business through “Starmind” — a planned constellation of up to one million AI satellites designed to run inference in orbit. It’s an audacious idea, and whether it becomes real infrastructure or remains a slide in a deck is one of the central questions for patient shareholders. On the product side, Grok 4.5 recently entered private beta, with Musk claiming its performance rivals or exceeds Anthropic’s Claude Opus — a claim worth noting but not yet independently established.
X Money Promises Eye-Popping Yield
The second development is arguably the more intriguing for retail investors, because it was hiding in plain sight. X Money officially launched in late June for U.S. Premium subscribers, with full availability targeted for mid-2026.
This is not a tip jar. The product offers a 6% annual yield on deposits, a personalized metal Visa debit card, peer-to-peer transfers, 3% cashback, and FDIC insurance structured to cover up to $10 million for top-tier subscribers.
The strategic logic rests on distribution: X has more than 560 million monthly active users and 245 million daily users, a built-in audience most fintechs would envy. And the AI layer is the differentiator — analysts note that with xAI funded, X can push beyond being a Cash App rival toward an “agentic banking” interface, positioning it in the emerging world of AI-driven commerce.
But let’s remember, the U.S. market is already saturated with entrenched players like PayPal, Venmo, Cash App, Zelle, and Apple Pay, and every prior attempt at a Western “super app” has hit the same ceiling. American consumers, already deeply banked and served by best-in-class single-purpose apps, have historically resisted the all-in-one model that made WeChat indispensable in China.
Which brings us to the event that will put numbers behind all of this: the first earnings report. SpaceX hasn’t officially confirmed the date, but it’s expected in early August, with several sources pointing to August 6th. This first reported quarter sets the tone for all three segments simultaneously and triggers the initial lock-up early release, so outsized volatility around the date should be expected regardless of results.
In keeping with the company’s ethos, the disclosure itself will be unconventional: SpaceX has said it will release financial results only through its website and its X account, bypassing the traditional newswire services entirely. It’ll be worth watching xAI’s bottom line now that the Anthropic and Google revenue is beginning to flow, alongside Starlink’s subscriber trajectory and any concrete update on Starship’s path to orbital payload delivery.
Bottom Line
Stepping back, the synthesis is what matters.
SpaceX SPCX is no longer a rocket company that happens to own a satellite network — it is a bet on whether one founder can simultaneously operate a launch monopoly, a Starlink cash machine, a frontier AI lab, and now a consumer bank.
The bull case is that Starlink’s profits fund the moonshots while xAI begins to monetize and X Money adds free upside. The bear case is equally coherent: reputable sources peg the fair value of the current business at roughly $780 billion — less than a third of the market capitalization — and the lock-up calendar promises a steady wave of supply, beginning after this very earnings report.
That first report, and the analyst estimates that follow it, will begin to fill in the blanks. Until then, SpaceX remains one of the most fascinating — and most richly valued — stories in the market.
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