Rheinmetall's 2030 guidance probably needs a reset, analysts at J.P. Morgan write in a note. The German defense company cut its 2026 guidance due to the cancellation of a big German contract it expected to win, and J.P. Morgan sees risks beyond. Changes in defense technology are happening faster than expected, and the German government is taking longer than anticipated to place orders, the analysts say. Moreover, Rheinmetall's plans to diversify into multiple areas rapidly mean it faces higher risks than rivals, they add. "In our view, [Rheinmetall's] 2030 targets increasingly look too ambitious," the analysts say. J.P. Morgan cuts its earnings estimates for Rheinmetall through 2030, and lowers its target price on the stock to 1,350 euros from 1,500 euros. Rheinmetall shares closed at 1,115 euros Thursday, before the company's guidance cut. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)