The win probability for the St. Louis Cardinals option in Polymarket's "St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees" market rose sharply from 31.5% one hour ago to 78.5% at present, a 47-point swing. According to ChainCatcher, the move suggests a sudden news-driven shift in sentiment related to the ev…
Catcher Predict reported sharp volatility in the Polymarket submarket for whether both teams would kill a dragon in the LoL match between DN SOOPers and HANJIN BRION in the LCK third-to-fourth round advancement group. According to ChainCatcher, the odds of the “Yes” option rose from 50% one hour ea…
Polymarket’s "NRFI" yes option in the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels event submarket fell sharply from 51% an hour ago to 34%, a 17% swing. According to ChainCatcher, the move reflects a sudden change in the prediction market and may be tied to breaking news.
Polymarket odds on the submarket for whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will still hold on August 15 swung sharply, with the “Yes” option rising to 58% from 40.5% one hour earlier. According to ChainCatcher, the move reflected a 17.5 percentage point increase and came amid warning of possible impact…
Wife of former FTX executive seeks to preclude her husband’s guilty pleaIn a Friday filing with the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) over campaign finance charges, Michelle Bond’s legal team asked the court to consider precluding evidence related to former FTX Digital…
A federal judge blocked Minnesota from enforcing its new law banning prediction markets, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operating in the state while litigation proceeds.U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez granted the motion for a preliminary injunction on Monday under the request of…
The National Football League is reportedly calling on Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig to curb sports prediction markets, arguing the agency’s proposed rules for event contracts fall short in protecting the integrity of its games and consumers, according to a letter dated Ju…
France’s National Gambling Authority has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, putting the prediction-market platform back under regulatory pressure in one of Europe’s largest markets.The ANJ said its president issued the network-level blocking request on July 16. The re…
The probability for the Tampa Bay Rays option in Polymarket’s Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays market surged to 66.5% from 36.5% one hour earlier. According to ChainCatcher, the move reflected a 30% swing in the submarket and came amid a warning that breaking news may be affecting the market.
According to CNBC, Kalshi, Polymarket and the casino and gaming sectors are escalating lobbying efforts in Washington as Congress and regulators scrutinize prediction markets. Kalshi said lobbying spending totaled $990,000 in the first half of 2026, or nearly $1.8 million including outside firms, t…
As state and federal regulators continue to clash over who should oversee sports-related prediction markets, lawmakers in Washington are considering whether Congress should step in.During a House Agriculture Committee digital assets subcommittee hearing Tuesday on sports betting through prediction…
For most of July, the story of the CLARITY Act was a story about one paragraph. Not the jurisdictional split between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not the DeFi carve-outs, not the illicit-finance provisions that critics kept circling. The whole…
Suspicious trading tied to prediction markets has increased as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity and scale. According to Odaily, analysis of about 34,000 flagged suspicious trades showed that the total value of such trades was about $200 million from January to June 2…
The probability of the Polymarket submarket "Sabrina Ionescu: Points O/U 16.5" in the "New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings" event fell sharply from 46% one hour earlier to 29%, a 17-point drop. According to ChainCatcher, the move reflects a sudden fluctuation in the prediction market and may have bee…
Prediction market platform Polymarket showed the probability of the Mandeb Strait closing by August 31 rising to 21%, up from a Monday morning low of 11%. According to Odaily, the probability of a closure by September 30 briefly reached 26%.Yemen's Houthi group, Ansar Allah, announced a maritime bl…
A few days before Sunday's World Cup Final, combined Kalshi and Polymarket open interest (OI) is down 20% from its peak of ~$2 billion at the beginning of July.On a smoothed weekly basis, total OI ran from $1.2 billion in late May to nearly $1.8 billion in the week ending July 5, then fell to aroun…
France's gambling regulator has ordered the country's internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, cutting French users off from the prediction market platform days before the World Cup final resolves the largest event markets the industry has produced.The Autorité nationale des jeux…
Polymarket traders are pricing in a high probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its July meeting, with odds rising to 94% after softer inflation data improved the market’s macro mood.That matters for Bitcoin because rate expectations remain one of the most important forces shapi…
France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday press release.The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not au…
France has officially shut the door on Polymarket. The country’s gambling regulator has blocked the crypto prediction platform nationwide. Regulators say the site breaks gambling laws and could expose users to market manipulation and insider trading.The move comes as Polymarket generates more than…
