Elon Musk’s rocket company is due to post its first financial update this Wednesday. Can it clear expectations?
🚀 SpaceX meets the earnings machine
- SpaceX reports second-quarter results after Tuesday’s closing bell, its first update since June’s record-setting IPO.
- Analysts expect a loss of $0.23 per share, much narrower than the first quarter’s $1.19 loss. Expectations are high. The share price is considerably less so.
- Revenue is forecast to reach $6.88 billion, up from $4.69 billion in the previous quarter. That is impressive sequential growth, but SpaceX still commands a roughly $1.4 trillion valuation after briefly touching $3 trillion.
- The rocket company’s shares have lost more than 50% since their June peak. Investors must now decide whether the selloff created an attractive entry point or merely completed stage one. Earnings should provide the first public evidence for either flight plan.
🛰️ Three businesses, one huge valuation
- SpaceX reports through three divisions: Space, Connectivity and AI. Space contains the Falcon launch franchise and Starship development.
- Connectivity houses Starlink. AI largely represents xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February. Diversified, certainly. Cheap to operate, absolutely not.
- Starlink ended the first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers, more than double the five million recorded a year earlier. The Connectivity unit generated roughly $3.3 billion of first-quarter revenue, making satellite internet the dependable engine beneath SpaceX’s more speculative ambitions.
- The AI division produced $818 million in first-quarter revenue but lost $2.5 billion from operations. AI capital spending reached $7.7 billion. Investors will want guidance for 2026 and 2027, plus details on plans to launch low-cost computing satellites into orbit.
🔓 Starship updates meet a share unlock
- Starship completed its 13th flight test in July. Wall Street will be listening for the timing of flight 14, progress toward commercial operations and the project’s mounting bill. SpaceX invested $1.1 billion in new plants and equipment for its Space division last quarter.
- The larger question is when Starship might begin testing orbital AI infrastructure. The vision involves launching computing satellites that process AI workloads in space, where solar energy is abundant.
- Nearly 912 million previously restricted shares become eligible for trading on Aug. 6, followed by another 319 million roughly one week later. Eligibility doesn’t guarantee selling, but additional supply can pressure prices. First come the earnings. Then potentially, the early investors.