Shares of SpaceX are headed toward a fifth consecutive weekly decline as strong revenue growth and ambitious AI targets failed to ease concerns over heavy capital spending, negative free cash flow and a looming wave of insider selling.
plunged 14% on Wednesday to $108.27, leaving the stock about 20% below its $135 June IPO price and 49% beneath its post-listing high.
SpaceX Spending Tests Cramer’s Bull Case
CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer urged investors to look beyond SpaceX’s volatility and consider the stock for future generations, arguing that lunar activity and orbital data centers could eventually become commonplace.
"Do you think your children or your grandchildren won't be doing stuff on the Moon someday? Do you think that orbital data centers won't make sense? They can get all the power from the sun. Might end up being the only place politicians let us put them. Think about it. Maybe you put some away for the next generation, or even the one after that. Back in the day, people bought 100-year railroad bonds that paid off. SpaceX could be a 100-year piece of paper too,” he said.
His optimism follows a strong quarter in which SpaceX’s revenue surged 92% to $7.8 billion, Starlink subscribers nearly doubled to 12 million, and AI revenue tripled to $2.6 billion. However, SpaceX remained deeply free-cash-flow negative after spending $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure, with similar outlays expected over the next two quarters.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s first post-IPO lockup expiration could add pressure. As many as 912 million of SpaceX’s 13.6 billion shares may become eligible for sale, more than doubling the public float, or potentially tripling it if an early-release provision is triggered. Another 12.9 billion shares are expected to become tradable through staggered releases by mid-2027.
CEO Elon Musk, who owns about 42% of SpaceX, cannot sell until one year after the IPO, while executive officers face restrictions that generally begin expiring after fourth-quarter results.
Analysts Defend SpaceX’s AI Spending
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu called the selloff “typical market myopia” on X, arguing that investors were overlooking SpaceX’s claimed sub-one-year returns on compute investments.
SpaceX plans to spend more than $250 billion deploying eight gigawatts of capacity over 18 months. Ferragu said operating cash flow and financing could limit the hit to its $85.7 billion IPO proceeds, while spending could be adjusted if returns disappoint.
Meanwhile, Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster believes Wall Street may be underestimating SpaceX’s 2027 growth. Starting from a projected $8.5 billion in December revenue, he calculated on X that 5% monthly growth could lift 2027 sales to $135 billion, which is $35 billion above consensus. Munster expects AI demand to support cloud contracts despite their 90-day cancellation clauses, while growth elsewhere could offset volatility in the launch business.
SpaceX AI Push Faces Bearish Warning
SpaceX’s AI push has influenced its investment thesis. Starlink was previously viewed as the profitable engine funding the company’s compute ambitions, but the space firm now argues that AI infrastructure can generate enough revenue to finance its own expansion. SpaceX expects to finish 2026 with more than two gigawatts of compute capacity. Musk has also floated reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, with a possibility of hitting the milestone in 2029.
However, veteran investor and former Peter Lynch associate George Noble remains a “high conviction” short. His $30 fair-value estimate implies a 72% downside from current levels, reflecting his view that the “Elon Musk premium” could become a discount if the capital-intensive strategy falls short.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX flipped dramatically to ‘bearish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ levels a day ago amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.
One bearish user , “$SPCX THE POINT IS this stock is grossly overvalued. It simply doesn’t have the FCF for this valuation - yet. Not in 2-3 years. So, today, its real value is not 2 trillion dollars. Maybe 300-400 billion, and that’s it. $50 per share is still a good valuation for its actual enterprise value.”
Another user said, “$SPCX I don't think I know how far its going to go down tomorrow. But I do know no one yet has ever shown me an instance in stock trading history where dilution led to a price increase. Yet bulls are still jumping in here.”
View this Stocktwits postSPCX stock has declined 33% so far this year.